| 摘要: 滇中高原湖泊流域位于我国西南生态安全屏障内，担负着擘画生态文明新蓝图的重任。评估流域景观生态风险、揭示驱动因素是保障其生态功能稳定性和防控生态风险的关键。本文基于2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年的土地利用数据，借助ArcGIS 10.8和Fragstatas 4.2构建景观生态风险评价模型，运用空间分析工具探究流域景观生态风险的时空分异特征和变化趋势，采用地理探测器识别全流域及局部区域自然因素和社会经济因素对景观生态风险的影响。研究结果显示：1）2000—2020年，林地和耕地是滇中高原湖泊流域内面积最大的景观，未利用地的面积最小。2）研究区内以中风险、中低风险为主。高风险区位于滇池以北，呈扩张趋势并向西北和东南方向延伸；中风险区、中高风险区不断向中部压缩；中低风险区、低风险区主要位于湖泊周围及流域北部，并围绕这些区域向外扩张。3）流域内大部分区域生态系统较为稳定，等级未发生变化。景观生态风险整体呈下降趋势，生态系统发展向好。4）从整体来看，景观生态风险主要受植被归一化指数、夜间灯光等因子的影响；从局部来看，夜间灯光、年降水量、植被归一化指数对景观生态风险影响较为显著。为此，滇中高原湖泊流域的景观生态风险具有明显的空异格局及变化特征并被多种因素驱动，相关政策的制定应围绕这些方面展开。 |
| 关键词: 景观生态风险 时空演变 驱动因素 地理探测器 高原湖泊流域 |
| 中图分类号:X171;X22 |
| 基金项目:国家乡村振兴局委托项目“巩固脱贫成果后评估试点项目”（80026091881）、云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目 (2021J0592)、云南财经大学引进人才项目(2022D13)和云南财经大学研究生创新项目基金（2022YUFEYC101） |
|
| Landscape ecological risk evaluation and driver identification in the lake basin of central Yunnan plateau* |
|
wangshu, liufenglian, chenweiting, liuyan, caiwei
|
|
Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
|
| Abstract: The lake basin of central Yunnan plateau is located within the shield for ecological security of southwestern China, so it bears the important responsibility of drawing a new blueprint for ecological civilization. Assessing the landscape ecological risk of the basin and revealing the driving factors is the key to guaranteeing the stability of its ecological function and controlling ecological risk. Therefore, this paper constructs a landscape ecological risk assessment model based on the land use data of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 with the help of ArcGIS 0.8 and Fragstatas 4.2, using spatial analysis tools to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the landscape ecological risk of the basin and its trend, and employs geographic probes to identify the impacts of natural factors and socio-economic factors on landscape ecological risk in the whole watershed and in local areas. The results show that: 1) From 2000 to 2020, woodland and cultivated land are the largest landscapes and unused land is the smallest in the lake basin of central Yunnan plateau. 2) Medium-risk and medium-low-risk areas predominate in the study area. The high-risk area is located to the north of Dianchi Lake, showing an expansion trend and extending to the northwest and southeast; the medium-risk and medium-high-risk areas are constantly compressed to the center; the medium-low-risk and low-risk areas are mainly located around lakes and in the northern part of the lake basin, and are expanding outward around these areas. 3) The ecosystems of most of the areas in the watershed are relatively stable, and the grades have not changed. The overall trend of landscape ecological risk is decreasing, and the ecosystem is improving.4) From the overall perspective, landscape ecological risk is mainly affected by factors such as normalized difference vegetation index and nighttime light; from the local perspective, nighttime light, annual precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index have a more significant impact on landscape ecological risk. Based on the findings of the study, suggestions for improving the ecological environment should be centered on spatial differentiation patterns, change characteristics, and driving factors. |
| Keyword: Landscape ecological risk Spatial and temporal evolution Drivers Geodetectors Plateau lake basin |