| 摘要: 农机跨区服务推动了以农业机械为载体的保护性耕作技术及其净碳汇的空间外溢。本文以2000—2020年中国30个省份(不含港澳台及西藏)为研究样本, 运用探索性空间数据分析法揭示保护性耕作机械及其净碳汇在空间上的集聚特征, 并通过空间杜宾模型定量分析保护性耕作机械对其净碳汇的空间溢出效应。研究发现: 1)保护性耕作机械及其净碳汇在2000—2020年均呈增长态势, 年均增长率分别为12.52%和7.42%, 两者均在空间上表现为“高-高集聚”和“低-低集聚”的区域集聚特征。2)保护性耕作机械通过跨区服务能够显著带动保护性耕作净碳汇实现空间外溢。具体表现为保护性耕作机械对周边省份保护性耕作净碳汇会产生正向空间溢出效应, 且主要归因于秸秆还田机械的跨区作业。3)保护性耕作机械对其净碳汇的空间溢出效应因时间、地形、粮食作物主产区而异。具体来说, 其空间溢出效应在2004—2009年和2010—2013年显著为正且呈增加趋势; 在平原地区其空间溢出效应为正, 而在丘陵山区则为负; 保护性耕作机械的空间溢出效应在水稻主产区更明显, 免耕机械的空间溢出效应在小麦主产区相对突出, 而秸秆还田机械的空间溢出效应在三大粮食作物主产区基本无差异。为此提出加大保护性耕作推广力度、搭建农机服务信息化平台和提高保护性耕作农机装备水平的对策建议。 |
| 关键词: 农机跨区服务 保护性耕作 净碳汇 空间溢出效应 |
| 中图分类号:F323.3 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社科项目（22YJA630042）；陕西省软科学项目（2023-CX-RKX-043）；西北农林科技大学经济管理学院研究生科技创新项目（JGYJSCXXM202206） |
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| Can conservation tillage machinery drive the spatial spillover of the net carbon sink of conservation tillage?— Based on the perspective of cross-zone service of agricultural machinery |
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Li Yuanyuan1, Xue Caixia1, Chai Chaoqing1, Li Wei2, Yao Shunbo1
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1.College of Economics and Management;2.College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering
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| Abstract: Conservation tillage is an environmentally friendly agricultural cultivation technique that distinguishes itself from traditional tillage, and its implementation relies on agricultural machinery. China"s unique situation as a large country with many small-scale farms has led to the development of a distinctive path for agricultural machinery in the form of cross-regional agricultural machinery services. Therefore, it is worth exploring whether conservation tillage machinery can drive the spatial spillover of the net carbon sink of conservation tillage under the context of cross-regional agricultural machinery services. This study is based on panel data from 30 provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2000 to 2020. Firstly, the exploratory spatial data analysis was used to reveal the spatial agglomeration characteristics of conservation tillage machinery and its net carbon sink. Secondly, it quantitatively analyzes the spatial spillover effect of conservation tillage machinery on its net carbon sink by using the spatial Durbin model. Furthermore, this study analyzes the heterogeneity of the spatial spillover effect of conservation tillage machinery on its net carbon sink from the dimensions of time, topography, and major grain-producing areas. The study found that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, conservation tillage machinery and the net carbon sink of conservation tillage increased from 22.55 million kW and 7.93 million t C in 2000 to 238.63 million kW and 331.74 million t C in 2020, with average annual growth rates of 12.52% and 7.42%, respectively. The growth trends are significant, and their development is closely synchronized. Spatial correlation results indicate that both exhibit regional agglomeration characteristics, with "high-high agglomeration" and "low-low agglomeration," showing a significant positive spatial correlation. (2) In the context of cross-regional agricultural machinery services, agricultural mechanization significantly drives the spatial spillover of the net carbon sink of conservation tillage. This is manifested as a positive spatial spillover effect of conservation tillage machinery on the net carbon sink of conservation tillage in neighboring provinces. Specifically, straw returning machinery exhibits a positive spatial spillover effect, while no-tillage machinery, due to its long-term implementation, mainly shows a negative spatial spillover effect as it can lead to crop yield reduction. (3) The spatial spillover effect of conservation tillage machinery on its net carbon sink exhibits heterogeneity across different time periods, topographies, and major grain-producing areas. In the temporal dimension, its spatial spillover effect was significantly positive and increasing during 2004-2009 and 2010-2013. In the topographic dimension, the spatial spillover effect was positive in the plain areas but negative in the hilly and mountainous regions. In the dimension of major grain-producing areas, the spatial spillover effect of conservation tillage machinery is more pronounced in the rice-producing areas. The spatial spillover effect of no-tillage machinery is relatively prominent in the wheat-producing areas. Then the spatial spillover effect of straw returning machinery is essentially the same across the three major grain-producing areas. Based on this, this study proposes measures to increase the promotion of conservation tillage, establish an agricultural machinery service information platform, and enhance the level of conservation tillage agricultural machinery and equipment. Additionally, the research findings hold significant reference value for how the government can use conservation tillage to contribute to the "dual carbon" target. |
| Keyword: cross-regional service of agricultural machinery conservation tillage net carbon sink spatial spillover effect |