| 摘要: 为合理利用好区域农业气候资源,趋利避害,加强枸杞气象科学技术研究和服务工作,为枸杞产业高质量发展提供依据。本文选取宁夏枸杞产区10个国家气象观测站1961－2021年气象资料,评估了枸杞生育期间主要气象因子的气候变化趋势,研判了主要气象灾害的发生趋势及其对枸杞产业的可能影响。结果表明：宁夏枸杞产区生育期间的气温、高温日数均呈上升趋势,近10年较上世纪60年代,平均、最高、最低气温分别升高了1.5 ℃、1.29 ℃和2.1 ℃,≥33℃高温日数增加了12.2 d,且在2001年发生突变,突变后较之前增加了9.2 d。相应地,热量资源也呈显著增加趋势,近10年较上世纪60年代,两季枸杞产区夏、秋果期≥10 ℃活动积温分别增加了266.1 ℃.d和132 ℃.d,且均在20世纪90年代发生突变,突变后较之前增多了10.6%和9.1%,一季枸杞产区全生育期≥10℃活动积温增加了319.9 ℃.d,1997年出现突变,突变后较之前增多了11.4%。此外,宁夏枸杞产区降水量和降水日数的年际间变率较大,秋果期日照时数总体呈减少趋势。气候变化导致枸杞生育进程普遍提前了11～13 d,全生育期延长。各气象灾害中,枸杞春季霜冻灾害风险整体增加,尤其是2010年以来的中～重度霜冻风险增加明显；枸杞高温热害显著增加,2001年发生突变,突变后较之前平均增加了12.2 d；阴雨寡照灾害整体呈增加趋势,年际变率较大；冰雹灾害呈减少趋势,近10年较上世纪60年代平均每年减少了6站次。热量资源的增加有利于扩大种植面积,但应充分认识到气候变化导致的枸杞重大气象灾害加剧,需要加强预警和防御能力。 |
| 关键词: 枸杞 气候变化 农业气候资源 农业气象灾害 宁夏 |
| 中图分类号:P49 |
| 基金项目:(2022AAC03678)资助 |
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| Response of agro-climatic resources and main meteorological disasters to climate change in the growing season of Lycium barbarum L. in Ningxia |
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XU Rui1, YANG Jianling1, liu jing1, yan weixiong1, ma guofei1, ma junbin2
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1.Ningxia Meteorological Science Institute;2.Ningxia Meteorological Information Cente
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| Abstract: To provide the basis for rational utilization of regional agricultural climate resources, seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages, strengthening the scientific research and service of Lycium barbarum L.meteorology, and supporting the high-quality development of Lycium barbarum L. industry. Based on the 1961－2021 surface meteorological data from 10 national meteorological observation stations in Ningxia, the response trend of major meteorological factors to climate change during the growth period of Lycium barbarum L. was evaluated, and the trend of major meteorological disasters and their possible effects on Lycium barbarum L. industry were investigated. The temperature and the number of high temperature days during the growth period of Lycium barbarum in Ningxia showed an increasing trend. Nearly 10 years compared to the 1960s, the average, maximum and minimum temperature increased by 1.5℃/a, 1.29℃/a and 2.1℃/a respectively. And the number of high temperature days increased by 12.2d/a, the mutation occurred in 2001, after which the number of high temperature days increased by 9.2d/a. Accordingly, the heat resources also showed a significant increase trend. Nearly 10 years compared to the 1960s, the accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ in summer and autumn fruity periods increased by 266.1 and 132℃.d/a , and both of them had mutation occurred in the 1990s, after which the increased by 10.6% and 9.1%. And the accumulated temperature of ≥10℃during the whole growth period of Lycium barbarum in one season increased by 319.9℃.d/a, the mutation occurred in the 1997, after which the temperature increased by 11.4%. The interannual variability of precipitation and precipitation days was large. Sunshine duration in autumn fruit period showed a decreasing trend. The growth process of Lycium barbarum L. was generally advanced by 11 ~ 13 days and the whole growth period was prolonged due to climate change. Lycium barbarum L. spring frost disaster was aggravating, especially the middle to severe frost since 2010. The high temperature damage increased significantly, and the mutation occurred in 2001, with an average increase of 12.2 d/a after mutation. The disaster of cloudy and rainy weather was increasing ,and it’s interannual variation rate was large, relatively concentrated in August to October. Hail disasters show a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of 6 in the past 10 years compared with the 1960s. The increase of heat resources is conducive to the expansion of planting, but it should be fully realized that the major meteorological disasters of Lycium barbarum L. caused by climate change will intensify, and the warning and defense capabilities should be strengthened. |
| Keyword: Lycium barbarum L. Climate change Agro-climatic resources Agrometeorological disaste Ningxia |