引用本文:李丽纯,陈家金,林 晶,黄川容,卢芸芸,徐宗焕. 基于模糊相似优先比的闽台两地果树气候相似性分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2013, 21(9): 1149-1156
LI Li-Chun,CHEN Jia-Jin,LIN Jing,HUANG Chuan-Rong,LU Yun-Yun,XU Zong-Huan. Using fuzzy similarity priority ratio to analyse climate similarity between Fujian and Taiwan for fruit tree cultivation[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2013, 21(9): 1149-1156
DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1011.2013.01149
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基于模糊相似优先比的闽台两地果树气候相似性分析
李丽纯1, 陈家金1, 林 晶1, 黄川容1, 卢芸芸2, 徐宗焕1
1.福建省气象科学研究所 福州 350001;2.上杭县气象局 上杭 364200
摘要:  选取台湾主要果树种植区代表站点高雄作为引种源地, 选择年平均气温、最冷月(1月)平均最低气温、历年极端最低气温、年降水量、年日照时数、年平均风速、年平均相对湿度7个因子作为比较因子, 采用模糊相似优先比法对闽台两地7个气候因子和果树气候进行相似性分析, 并划分相似性优先等级, 制作相似性空间分布图。结果表明: (1)漳州市沿海大部、厦门市同安区与台湾省高雄市果树气候相似程度较高; 莆田市区、泉州市大部、漳州市西部相似性中等; 闽中大山带(鹫峰山 戴云山 博平岭)以西的大部分县市农业气候相似性差或不相似, 为不适宜引种区; 其余县市农业气候相似性程度较差, 若要引种, 必须采取保护地栽培。(2)福建省中南部沿海尤其南部沿海地区的气候因子与台湾省高雄市的相似性比较高(年降水量除外)。(3)采用模糊相似优先比法研究闽台两地的果树气候相似性是可行的, 研究结果与实际种植情况相符。研究结果可为地方政府或其他相关部门开展果树优化布局提供决策依据。
关键词:  台湾省 高雄市 福建省 果树 气候相似性 模糊相似优先比
中图分类号:
基金项目:中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CAMGJ2012M27)、中国气象局小型业务项目(2012209)、福建省自然科学基金项目(2012J01160)、科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目(2012GB24160607)、福建省气象局开放式气象科学研究基金项目(2011K03)和福建省气象局青年科技专项(2012q05)资助
Using fuzzy similarity priority ratio to analyse climate similarity between Fujian and Taiwan for fruit tree cultivation
LI Li-Chun1, CHEN Jia-Jin1, LIN Jing1, HUANG Chuan-Rong1, LU Yun-Yun2, XU Zong-Huan1
1.Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou 350001, China;2.Shanghang Meteorological Administration, Shanghang 364200, China
Abstract:  The wide introduction of tropical and subtropical fruit trees from Taiwan to Fujian has brought significant economic benefit in recent years. But this blind approach still carried high risks in the farming communities in Fujian. A climate similarity study between Fujian and Taiwan was conducted for the introduced fruit trees to guide government and other stakeholders optimize distributions of the fruit trees. This study aimed to reduce or eliminate the risks associated with the blind introduction of fruit trees from Taiwan to Fujian and to improve the yield and quality of the cultivated fruits. The study used Gaoxiong City as a representative origination source region of major fruit cultivation area in Taiwan Province. Then a total of 67 counties in Fujian Province were used as the receiving source regions in mainland China. A total of seven climatic factors were compared in the study - annul mean temperature, mean minimum temperature in the coldest month (January), extreme minimum temperature of previous years, annual precipitation, annual sunshine hour, annual mean wind speed and annual mean relative humidity. Based on the meteorological data of Gaoxiong City for 1981-2010 and that of the 67 counties in Fujian Province for 1971-2011, the investigated climatic factors and climate similarity between Taiwan and Fujian for fruit tree cultivation were analyzed. While the fuzzy similarity priority ratio method was used in the analysis, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was use to weigh the agricultural climate similarity indices. The agricultural climate similarity priority was classified into five degrees based on the total values of the fuzzy similarity priority ratios - higher, medium, relatively poor, poor, none similar. Spatial distribution maps of agricultural climate similarity of the fruit trees were then drawn in GIS or Surfer platforms. The results showed that: (1) Agricultural climate of most counties in Zhangzhou coastal area, Tong'an District in Xiamen City had high climate similarity with Gaoxiong City. Putian City, most of Quanzhou City and west of Zhangzhou City had medium climate similarity with Gaoxiong City. Also most counties in the west mountain areas of central Fujian Province (Jiufeng Mountain, Daiyun Mountain and Boping Mountain) had poor or no climate similarity with Gaoxiong City, which implied that the west mountain areas were not suitable for the cultivation of tropical and subtropical fruit trees from Taiwan Province. The other counties of Fujian Province had relatively poor climate similarity with Gaoxiong City in Taiwan Province. In these regions, tropical and subtropical fruit trees introduced from Taiwan Province needed to be cultivated in protective fields. (2) The distributions of annul mean temperature, mean minimum temperature in the coldest month (January) and extreme minimum temperature of previous years were similar to the distribution of the total value of the fuzzy similarity priority ratio of agricultural climate between Gaoxiong City and the 67 counties in Fujian Province. Central south coastal counties of Fujian Province had relatively high similarity, while the inland counties had poor similarity. (3) The climatic factors (except for annual precipitation) of central south coast of Fujian Province, especially the south coastal counties, had high climate similarity with Gaoxiong City. (4) For fruit tree cultivation, it was feasible to study the climate similarity between Fujian Province and Gaoxiong City using the fuzzy similarity priority ratio method. The results of the study offered useful and scientific basis for optimizing the distribution of fruit trees introduced from Taiwan to Fujian.
Keyword:  Taiwan Province, Gaoxiong City, Fujian Province, Fruit tree, Climate similarity, Fuzzy similarity priority ratio
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